The healthcare industry is buzzing with talk of AI. We are at the very top of the Ambulatory Revenue Cycle Management (RCM) AI hype cycle, the “Peak of Inflated Expectations.” Vendors promise panaceas. Consultants forecast disruption. Some even predict the elimination of the entire coding profession.
But amid the noise, there are three very real mistakes that practices, executives, and physician shareholders can make, each with profound financial consequences. Together, they risk shifting $150 billion per year away from providers and into the pockets of payers.
Those mistakes are: (1) False Start, (2) Wrong Finish Line, (3) Wait.
Let’s look at each in turn.
Mistake #1: The False Start
With so much hype, it’s tempting to leap toward something shiny and new, hoping it will fix everything. We’ve seen this movie before. In the Meaningful Use era, technology vendors promised efficiency but delivered the opposite: more work for doctors, higher burnout, and lower patient satisfaction.
Today’s AI promises feel eerily similar. Some vendors claim they can solve physician burnout by listening to doctor-patient conversations and automatically creating the coded encounter. But think about the risks:
- Will that AI follow up with physicians after the visit, asking if the patient is morbidly obese?
- Worse still, will it ask the doctor in front of the patient?
Instead of reducing friction, false-start AI solutions risk repeating old mistakes and creating more work for physicians, not less. And when those pilots fail, organizations will retreat. They’ll wait even longer to adopt the right AI solutions once they are available on the Slope of Enlightenment.
False starts don’t just waste time. They set adoption back by years.
Mistake #2: The Wrong Finish Line
This is the most dangerous error because it’s permanent.
Some physician groups will adopt AI aimed at the wrong finish line: eliminating coder headcount. On the surface, this looks attractive. Cutting 250,000 coding jobs nationwide saves salary dollars. But as we explained in Goldilocks and the Three Coders, productivity alone isn’t the goal. Total outcomes matter more.
When groups focus on the wrong finish line, they miss out on the higher outcome created by optimizing STAR² Ai instead of productivity. Across the industry, this missed opportunity adds up to $150 billion per year.
The tragedy is twofold:
- Permanent value loss: By eliminating coders, practices destroy the very expertise required to optimize STAR² Ai outcomes. Once coders are gone, the knowledge to capture those dollars is gone too.
- Profit shift to payers: Instead of increasing physician shareholder value, the profitability shifts to payers who exploit the gap.
This mistake isn’t just a financial error. It’s a structural shift that locks in weaker outcomes for decades.
Mistake #3: The Wait
The most common mistake won’t be a false start or a wrong finish line. It will be inaction.
Healthcare leaders have heard AI promises before. They’ve seen hype cycles crash. Many will adopt a “fast follower” strategy:
- Let others make the false-start mistake.
- Let others make the wrong-finish-line mistake.
- We’ll wait and then move when the dust settles.
This logic makes sense if all Ambulatory RCM AI is still at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. But that’s not the case.
White Plume and STAR² Ai are already years ahead — outperforming even Plateau of Productivity projections and delivering real results today. With validated outcomes approaching $30,000 per provider per year, waiting isn’t neutral. It’s a six-figure mistake per provider. For large physician groups and PE-backed platforms, that adds up to millions of dollars in avoidable loss every year.
And in an environment where payer AI is already being used to deny claims faster and margins are being squeezed tighter, waiting isn’t just risky — it’s unsustainable.
The Right Path: Optimize STAR² Ai Today
The lesson is clear:
- False starts waste time and trust.
- Wrong finish lines permanently shift billions in profitability to payers.
- Waiting costs millions per year in lost opportunity.
The only safe path forward is to aim AI at the right finish line, thetotal outcomes, not productivity, and not headcount reduction. That’s what STAR² Ai measures and delivers.
And unlike hypothetical vendor promises, STAR² Ai is already producing validated gains across specialties, with clients achieving results better than the projected Plateau of Productivity.
The Takeaway: Don’t Lose $150B to Payers
At the top of the Ambulatory RCM AI hype cycle, it’s tempting to make the wrong move — or no move at all. But the consequences are measured not in buzzwords, but in billions.
- False Start: Set your adoption back years.
- Wrong Finish Line: Permanently forfeit $150B to payers.
- Wait: Lose $30k per provider per year while margins shrink.
